ANALYSIS: What’s next for Israel between now and January 20, 2025?
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The following was posted by Raylan Givens on X, we thought it was rational analysis:
During President Biden’s 10 weeks left in office, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to decide whether to heed his policy directives or treat him as a lame duck and effectively “hold” until Trump gets into office. The Washington Post reports that senior officials in the Biden administration know that their influence on other countries is waning and that their ability to make policy decisions may be limited once Trump is inaugurated on January 20.
Of the three separate conflicts in which Israel is currently involved—Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran—none are expected to be resolved before Trump takes office.
Next week, the Biden administration will face a decision on whether to impose an arms embargo on Israel. The 30-day deadline set by the U.S. for the Israeli government to increase humanitarian aid to northern Gaza expires, and if unmet, Israel could face a suspension of arms shipments and other assistance from the U.S. Senior officials from both the U.S. and Israel have held intensive talks about it, but little action has been taken by Israel so far.
One factor complicating the administration’s decision is the knowledge that if Biden were to cut off military supplies to Israel, Trump—who has reportedly been in regular contact with PM Netanyahu and last month urged him to “do what you have to do” to win the war—could revoke the decision immediately upon taking office. In the meantime, Israel could completely block humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
Hams knows that time is of the essence for them. As soon as Trump becomes President, he is not likely to push Israel to supply aid to Gaza, and Hams will lose any ability to control Gaza, so we may see a hostage deal very soon.
Estimates suggest that the chances of reaching an agreement in Lebanon under Biden may be higher than reaching one in Gaza. The administration has a detailed plan for Lebanon, which Israel might be more willing to accept now that it has mostly achieved its goals, including dismantling Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure and evacuating the organization’s terrorists from the south of the country near the border.
And then there’s Iran, which is facing a major dilemma. The threats they’ve made in recent weeks seem to be pushing them toward an attack on Israel, but with Trump now elected, they might hold back.
It’s also not clear how Tehran will react to another term of Trump, who may try to renew the campaign of “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic from his previous term in the White House in the form of sanctions and direct military actions against senior Iranian generals.
In the meantime, the dramatic dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Galant by PM Netanyahu may further complicate the ability of the Biden administration to advance its policy goals in the Middle East. During the war that followed the October 7 massacre, senior American officials viewed Gallant as an “indispensable partner” and a key ally in the fight against the right in Netanyahu’s coalition, some of whom strongly oppose providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians, and some of whom would like to see Jewish settlement in Gaza.
(Raylan Givens on X)
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