As America dramatically ramps up its military presence in the Middle East, Putin is in Syria meeting with Bashar Al-Assad and Islamists are gathered in Tehran
Copyright: متجول [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons
If there is one thing that can overcome the thirteen centuries old hatred between the Sunna and Shia factions of Islam, it is their common hatred for Israel. Or so it would seem, when the twin leaders of the Islamic terrorist government in Gaza, the head of the Hamas movement and the de facto Gazan dictator Ismail Haniyeh and the head of the even more radical Islamic Jihad defy Egyptian orders not to travel to Iran for Soleimani’s funeral. This defiance of the largest and most influential Sunni Arab country in the world by two Sunni Arabs is significant because Egypt provides Gaza with its only border crossing that is not under Israeli control and because Egypt is the only entity that is capable of interceding on Gaza’s behalf with Israel, with which it has full diplomatic relations.
By traveling to Tehran for the funeral and even more so by meeting with Soleimani’s heir in direct defiance of Egypt’s most dire warnings, the Gazan ruling Islamists cast their lot with the Shia leaders in Iran and their Sunni flunkies such as Qatar. Operationally, this means that Gaza will take part in the planned Iranian retaliation for the elimination of Qasem Soleimani by the United States.
It also means that Netanyahu’s half-hearted gambit to keep Israel out of the revenge cycle by declaring that the Soleimani assassination, while supported in principle by Israel, is not an Israeli action or concern, will not work and Israel will not only have a role in the coming retaliatory action, it will likely “enjoy” a leading one at that.
Sadly, as in the opening gambits of every war, we are now subject to massive streams of dis and mis information coming from every quarter of the military and political scenes worldwide. This disinformation includes the “draft” letter that was “mistakenly” sent last night informing the Iraqis that the US was withdrawing its forces. It further includes, alas, mountains of Twitter punditry by MAGA accounts who, cynically or otherwise, spread disinformation that shows the US decreasing its military engagements in the Middle East.
The truth, as much as it can be discerned through the gathering fog of war, is that the US is now drastically increasing rather than decreasing its military presence across the Middle Eastern region. The truth is that Russian president Putin has just landed in Damascus for unscheduled talk with Syrian president Al-Assad. The truth is that in Tehran, in Damascus, in Jerusalem, and in other Middle Eastern capitals as well as in Washington DC there are now urgent consultations and military planning sessions ahead of the inevitable expansion of hostilities across the region.
The United States is not and cannot withdraw from the Middle East under any scenario in the foreseeable future. Anyone who claims otherwise is engaging in naive wishful thinking or, much worse, is lying for personal gain.
Americans, especially MAGA Americans, deserve leaders and pundits who tell them the truth rather than pander to them. They need to open their ears to this truth no matter how much they wish it to go away. America has vital interests in the Middle East as do its rivals for world supremacy, Russia and China. American economy depends on America’s ability to conduct international trade on terms that are favorable to it and that ability is won and lost in the Middle East and nowhere else.
President Trump is fully aware of this, as his necessary and courageous action against one of America’s greatest enemies, Qasem Soleimani so well demonstrates. The president is also a political animal, of course, and he is keenly aware of his so-called “base’s” lack of understanding of geopolitical realities. Mr. Trump knows that his “base” is incapable of understanding the vital and unbreakable connection between their jobs and their stock portfolios and America’s ability to credibly project power abroad and maintain its position of world supremacy. So he must tread carefully. But if there is anything we know of Mr. Trump, it is that politics be damned, he will not allow America to lose. Not on his watch. And thank God for that.
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