It’s “as if” the vaccine didn’t work!?!
Executive summary
This is one of the most stunning “natural experiments” regarding the efficacy of the COVID vaccine in preventing deaths.
Both Israel and Palestine tracked COVID mortality before and after the vaccine rollout (which was nearly all to Israel).
Yet if you look at the cumulative COVID deaths, it “looks” like there was no intervention at all because there was no slope discontinuity that you would expect to see on each COVID wave with a vaccine that is supposedly highly protective against death.
Palestine has a younger population, but the cumulative mortality slopes during the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine COVID waves tracked each other.
I think it means the vaccine didn’t work and this is a smoking gun.
ChatGPT insists that there must be a confounder and suggests that it was because Palestine had high COVID cases before the rollout and acquired natural immunity.
I checked this out and it appears to be false, but it could be due to under-reporting of cases in Palestine relative to Israel.
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