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Posted Zero Hedge
Summary
- No Clear Victor: Likud leads as the largest party with 24-25 seats, but the anti-Netanyahu bloc leads overall, with neither side near the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
- Record Voter Turnout: Participation hit 66.7% by 6 p.m., fueled partly by strong Arab-Israeli turnout that could hurt Netanyahu.
- Likud sought extended voting hours, was rejected: Netanyahu signaled election fraud before final results were available.
- Arab Parties Hold Some Key Leverage: Projected to win 17–18 seats, Arab-led parties could influence coalition formation, though opposition divisions may prolong political gridlock.
Vote Close with Lack of Clear Victor: Exit polls show Anti-Netanyahu bloc leads, Likud biggest party
Like with prior recent big legislative elections, we could witness months of coming gridlock over who is crowned the ruling coalition – and prime minister. So far, amid initial exit polls published, no clear winner is emerging, but it’s clear that Netanyahu’s Likud party is doing better than expected, and is in the lead in terms of single party votes.
Arab-Israeli turnout was huge and perhaps unprecedented, reflecting long-running Palestinian anger at the Netanyahu government’s policies. But it seems that for the time being many Israelis have been convinced to sticky by ‘Warrior Bibi’ (as Trump alluded to) as the ‘wartime prime minister. Below are some latest key data points via Times of Israel:
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has won the highest share of votes in Tuesday’s election, but neither of Israel’s two political camps has a clear path to forming a government, the Kan public broadcaster’s exit poll shows.
- Likud’s projected lead after polls closed at 10 p.m. defies months of polls that showed the party trailing Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar.
- Now, however, Kan projects Likud winning 25 seats out of a possible 120, compared to 21 for Yashar.
- Overall, however, the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot is projected to win more seats, with 53 out of a possible 120, compared with 50 for the Netanyahu-led bloc.
- Arab-led parties, which are opposed to Netanyahu but are not part of the Zionist anti-Netanyahu bloc, are projected to win 17 seats.
- As such, the poll shows both blocs falling short of the 61-seat majority necessary to form a government, leaving no clear path to victory for Netanyahu or for Eisenkot.
- While Likud’s victory over Yashar is an upset after months of polls showing the results swinging the other way, the lack of any clear victor was expected.
Channel 12 News Poll:
- Likud (Bibi’s party): 24 seats
- Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot’s party): 22 seats
And…
- Bennett 12
- Joint List 11
- Democrats 9
- Lieberman 9
- Shas – 8
- Ra’am – 7
- United Torah Judaism – 6
- Ben Gvir: 6
- Religious Zionism: 6
- Gadi Bloc: 52
- Bibi Bloc: 50
- Arab Parties: 18
Winter and Zelekha are out.
Jerusalem Post projection: Netanyahu’s bloc projected to win some 50 seats, compared to the opposition’s 52-53; Arab parties predicted to reach combined seat total of 17-18, complicating both blocs’ efforts to form coalition.
Reaction of Netanyahu’s main opponent:
Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot hails the initial exit polls as “a complete vote of no confidence in [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and the October 7 government by the Zionist majority and by most Israeli citizens.”
“If these are the final results, this is a victory for Israel’s responsible Zionist majority,” he writes on X.
Election Authorities Reject Likud Request To Extend Voting; Netanyahu Signals ‘Fraud’
There are several hours remaining before polls close, amid already record-turnout, which is likely a bad sign for Netanyahu and his Likud party.
“By 6 p.m. local time (12 p.m. Eastern), four hours before polls were scheduled to close, 66.7 percent of voters had cast ballots,” NYT observes. “It was the highest figure at that point in the day since Israel’s Central Elections Committee began tracking Election Day turnout in two-hour increments in 1973, and nine percentage points higher than at the same time in 2022.”
Arab-Israelis, which make up about one-fifth of the country’s population, have been turning out in droves – again, a bad sign for Netanyahu. He has posted on X hours ago: “Likudniks, what’s happening to us? This is a war for the home, this is a real emergency.”
Likud is asking for an extended voting hours- Eisenkot’s party opposes bid:
- Turnout at 66.7% as of 6 p.m.
- highest in recorded history for this hour
- Election committee says polling stations will stay open after 10 p.m. if people are waiting in line
- Netanyahu warns once again of Arab voters ‘racing to the ballots,’ drawing racism accusations
- ISRAEL ELECTION OFFICIALS RULE AGAINST EXTENDING VOTING HOURS
Israeli media reports say Netanyahu is already preparing a formal challenge to the results, before polls even close, alleging fraud:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party began preparing to challenge results from polling stations in Arab cities and towns before voting opened Tuesday morning, with Hebrew news sites on Monday quoting Likud operatives as saying that the party has discussed the possibility of claiming the vote was “stolen” if Netanyahu does not win.
According to a Channel 12 news report, Likud was already drawing up a number of complaints and allegations of fraud for voting stations in Arab communities.
Netanyahu’s party was reportedly readying to challenge women who show up to vote fully veiled as well as allegations that some polling stations have segregated voting times for men and women, having reportedly sent several thousand party activists to “monitor” polling sites in Arab-majority areas.
Likud and its allies are also deeply concerned over widespread scenes emerging from Arab-dominant cities in Israel like the following:
Bibi Fatigue?
Shin Bet chief David Zini has said as Israelis head to the polls in record numbers on Tuesday, “Voter turnout is high, and we can confidently tell the citizens of Israel that the elections are being monitored and conducted in a proper and inspiring manner.”
Today is Israel’s first national legislative election since the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas-led attack which unleashed years of war, particularly focused in the Gaza Strip. The Lebanon conflict is also still smoldering, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – whose political fate is being determined in the vote – is threatening renewed war on Iran.
“The elections for the 26th Knesset began on Tuesday morning, with 7,331,981 voters eligible to participate. 12,018 polling stations will be set up across the country, where voters can choose between 36 lists running to fill the 120 seats in Israel’s legislature,” Israel National News Arutz Sheva previews.
Polls opened at 7am and will close at 10pm (4pm US eastern).
Already the election is being widely described as having incredibly high voter turnout, which is being seen as not boding well for Netanyahu and his Likud party, suggesting “Bibi fatigue” – which is likely to result in more votes for parties either further to the right or to the left.
Record Turnout
The Times of Israel is a noon update writes:
Voter turnout stood at 31.5% as of noon, according to the Central Elections Committee, up from 28.4% at the same time in the 2022 election.
It is the highest turnout at this hour since 1973, in the first election held after the Yom Kippur War.
77-year old “Bibi” has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, and he’s constantly emphasized security, in many ways becoming a kind of permanent wartime prime minister. He’s overseen the decimation of Gaza in the wake of the Oct.7 attack, and wars in Lebanon, Syria, and occasional strikes on Yemen.
The Iran war remains the biggest conflict he’s overseen, which has seen ballistic missiles and drones rain down on Israeli cities and bases as part of previous Iranian retaliation waves. His opponents have charged him with seeking to restart the war under false pretenses in order to extend his power.
On election day, Times of Israel writes that “Final polls suggest a tight race between Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar. While the opposition appears to have more potential paths to a parliamentary majority, deep divisions among its leaders, particularly over cooperation with Arab parties, could prevent them from translating an electoral advantage into a governing coalition.”
Israelis Head to Polls All Day Tuesday
As a reminder, voters elect a legislature rather than directly choosing their prime minister – based on a proportional representation system.
Also, “Unlike most other democracies, Israel has no geographic electoral districts. The entire country acts as a single constituency, meaning voters in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa all choose from the same party lists, rather than electing individual lawmakers to represent their local areas,” TOI continues.
Like in 2019, there’s always the possibly that attempts by party heads to form a government fail, resulting in a parliamentary dissolution, and another election called. By 2022 there was no less than a fifth election after the collapse of the Bennett-Lapid government.
“Go vote!” Netanyahu urged Israelis in Hebrew as he and his wife Sara case their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem.
But also, Netanyahu has warned in a new video to his supporters that “they are trying to steal the election from us,” in reference to three Ra’am operatives recently arrested on suspicion of bribing voters. Ra’am is a religious Arab Muslim party.
“It’s serious,” he says. “It’s criminal. They will reach every single person. You have been warned.”
Meanwhile, oops…
